From Lincoln City to Mars and Back: Experiencing the Echo Mountain Fire at Lincoln City, Oregon

Ritchie Jensen, a friend and former colleague at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, has a home in Lincoln City, Oregon. This is his description of experiencing the September 2020 coastal wildfires.

Beach at Lincoln City

 

Although I didn’t know it at the time, my extra-planetary trip was set in motion at 7:30 pm on Monday, September 7, 2020.  At that moment, the winds at my home in Lincoln City shifted 180-degrees and temperatures suddenly jumped from 60 to 80 degrees.  The air began to fill with smoke.  By midnight, strong winds were uprooting trees throughout the area.  Half past 1 am on Tuesday, electric power was lost.  I awoke that morning to a bright red sky.  Looking out my west-facing bedroom window there appeared to be a red sunset.  What on earth was going on? “The end of days” popped momentarily into my mind.

That afternoon, after more than 12-hours without power my wife and I headed to Newport to buy batteries, lanterns and flashlights.  On our arrival, the sky was a jaw-dropping orange.  Outdoors everything had an eerie orange glow to it.  It felt like I was on another planet.  Mars came to mind.  Did I somehow drive through a worm hole and end up in a parallel universe?  On the curvy coastal highway (Hwy101) drive back, I had to try hard not to be distracted by the otherworldly scenery, lest I drive off a cliff. 

Yaquina Bay Bridge, Newport

 On Wednesday, the strange scenery was gone, replaced with thick white smoke that blocked out the sun.  A slight layer of ash was building on surfaces.  The amazement felt the day before was now replaced with fear and anxiety.  Parts of Lincoln City were being evacuated due to the approaching Echo Mountain fire
and we were told to prepare to evacuate.  Two nearby homes had sprinklers going atop their roofs. The town was completely shut down; no stores, restaurants, or gas stations were open.  Sirens were constantly blaring. I was back on earth again.

Newport Bay

 

Around 7 pm, electricity went out for a second 24-hour period. One doesn’t realize just how much we take electricity for granted, until it’s gone.  So many things that make life comfortable vanish in an instance.  No more lights, TV, internet, microwave, etc.  Just keeping clean is a chore.  I would improvise by washing with a bucket of still warm hot-tub water and then gingerly shower off with cold tap water, praying to avoid cardiac arrest. This, incidentally, is a disadvantage of having a tank-less water heater. 

Thursday morning the wind shifted back to normal and an ocean breeze dropped the temperature 25-degrees and replaced the smoke with fog.  The wind was also tending to push the fire away from Lincoln City.  Nonetheless, a Level-one -- prepare to evacuate -- evacuation status remained in place (Level-two is prepare to leave at a moment’s notice, and Level-three is get the hell outta here, now!).

Friday, the evacuation notice was lifted and rain was in the forecast. Thank goodness.  Despite feeling like I dodged a bullet, the fire continued to burn, threatening many others.

In sum, I had the mistaken impression that the Oregon coast region would benefit from global warming.  The summer had been wonderfully pleasant with tons of sunshine and almost no rain.  I was smug in ignoring warnings from scientists of increasing fire risk from drying out coastal forests.  No more.  The exact number of homes lost to fire is unknown, but likely more than 100.

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The official Lincoln City website stated that, "High winds, along with hot, dry conditions resulted in multiple fires igniting in Lincoln County. This has created power outages, road closures, and evacuations. The most immediate threat to Lincoln City is the Echo Mountain Fire Complex." The fire was 45% contained as of September 20th.

If you are interested in making a donation to help with recovery from the fire, here are a list of voluntary organizations active in disaster relief efforts: https://orvoad.communityos.org/cms/

Climate Change -- Democratic vs Republican Perspective

Two massive fires in California forced thousands of evacuations over the weekend and continue to rage into Monday. (Photo: AP)

Democrats describe climate change as a “real and urgent threat,” and they call for setting a price on greenhouse gas emissions. “Climate change is too important to wait for climate deniers and defeatists in Congress to start listening to science,” and government officials must take any steps they can to reduce pollution, the platform says. It calls for the country to generate half of its electricity from clean sources in the next decade and for cleaner transportation fuels, more public transit and a tax code that creates incentives for renewable energy. The platform also beats back suggestions that protecting the environment would be bad for business. “Democrats reject the notion that we have to choose between protecting our planet and creating good-paying jobs,” it says.

Republicans say “climate change is far from this nation’s most pressing national security issue,” as Democrats have labeled it. They oppose international accords like the agreement crafted in Paris last year that aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to slow the climb in global temperatures. The platform also blasts President Obama’s “clean power plan,” which would cut emissions by shifting away from coal-powered power plants. The initiative has been put on hold by the Supreme Court; Republicans vow to do away with it entirely. They also pointedly describe coal as a “clean” energy resource, a description environmentalists have roundly rejected.
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http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-democrats-republicans-platforms-20160727-snap-htmlstory.html

WILD, WILD WILDFIRES -- And more to come

Paul Delaney (Cheney Free Press, 7/31/14) takes exception to the contention that “climate change is the culprit for longer, bigger and more intense wildfires.” According to Delaney, it’s all about forest management.

Well, Washington isn’t the only state fighting longer, bigger and more intense wildfires. Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Wyoming, and Utah are all fighting wildfires in triple-digit temperatures, in drought-stricken areas.

The largest of Oregon’s 18 major fires – known as the “Buzzard Complex” and located in the high desert central portion of the state – now totals 272,352 acres and is just 20 percent contained. Ranchers report cows and calves killed in the blaze, which was cause by a lightning strike.

According to the National Interagency Fire Center, we are experiencing an unusual wildfire season, with 32 large active fires going on, most in the Pacific Northwest; over 30,000 blazes nationwide. Governor Inslee said, “I know people have seen fires before. This is a different beast. This is a fire storm.”

According to the Oregon Climate Research Institute, drought-fueled wildfires, exacerbated by an increase in forest morbidity due to pest infestation, is projected as a major impact of global warming in the Pacific Northwest -- a forecast supported by the Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington.

It’s past time for us to tackle global warming head on. The first priority is to price carbon so that it reflects the costs of carbon pollution. Costs for which we taxpayers end up footing the bill, whether it’s for crop loss due to drought, or declining shellfish harvest due to ocean acidification, or for fighting longer, bigger, more intense wildfires.

Climate Change Has a High Price

The Wenatchee World, July 17, 2014
by By Steven Ghan and Alex Amonette

Much as we may hate to admit it and don’t want to think about it, our burning of fossil fuels and releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere increases the greenhouse effect.
This results in climate change. It costs us. Local costs include the loss of agriculture in the Yakima Valley as less summer snowmelt is available for irrigation because more winter precipitation falls as rain in a warmer climate. National costs include the billions of dollars the U.S. government spends annually on imported oil and subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, and the trillions of dollars of property value that will be lost as sea level rises, subsidized by National Flood Insurance.

The costs keep rising, and are rising with interest. The costs of climate damage are higher than the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. As time marches on, it will only become more and more expensive to pay for these costs and mitigate these effects.

The administration is moving ahead with EPA rules to cut carbon dioxide emissions at power plants and the Supreme Court has already upheld EPA’s authority to regulate carbon dioxide as a pollutant.

Most of the solutions, such as cap and trade, proposed to mitigate global warming involve an economic penalty. As an alternative, a number of conservatives, like former Secretary of State George Shultz, are urging fellow conservatives to support a market-based approach as an insurance policy to solve the problem by using a revenue-neutral carbon tax.

In this system, as proposed by Citizens’ Climate Lobby, a $15 per ton fee is placed on fossil fuels — coal, oil, and gas — at their source — well, mine, port of entry/refinery. There are about 2,000 entities involved at this point on whom the fee is placed. The fee rises $10 per ton per year annually in a predictable manner until we reach a safe level of emissions. Then, 100 percent of the revenue is returned to every American household. Not one dime goes to the government. Administrative costs are miniscule and no new bureaucracy is created. Domestic manufacturers and producers are protected through a border tax adjustment.

The Citizens' Climate Lobby Fee & Dividend Approach

 The American people get a monthly dividend check or automatic deposit in their bank account. This provides cash to pay for any price hike in fuel costs. We will also have more money to spend on food, insulation, a more fuel efficient vehicle, health care, etc.. By 2025, if this system had been implemented in 2015 each household would have $300 a month as a steady dividend.

A study commissioned by CCL showed that the economy would grow, millions of jobs would be created, thousands of lives saved, emissions would be reduced and we would begin the gradual transition off of fossil fuels onto low- or zero-carbon energy sources that will eventually help us stabilize our climate system.

Each of us would have an incentive to reduce emissions because the taxes we pay decrease as we use less carbon energy. Other countries would have an incentive to reduce emissions because the border adjustment depends on whether they tax carbon energy.

In 2008, British Columbia began a carbon tax, with the revenue returned to citizens through lowered income taxes. A new peer-reviewed study reported on British Columbia’s emissions and economy through 2012. The results are impressive. Polls show that public support for the British Columbia carbon tax has grown to 64 percent.

We can do the same in the United States. Because CCL’s carbon fee and dividend is revenue-neutral, it offers the most effective first step for us to both stabilize our climate and stimulate our economy. It beats cap and trade and government regulations.

Please contact our representatives. In the 4th District, Rep. Doc Hastings; In the 5th Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, in the 8th, Rep. David Reichert. Ask them to enact the Citizens’ Climate Lobby Carbon Fee and Dividend legislative proposal now. We reap what we sow.

Steve Ghan is a climate scientist. Alex Amonette is a trained geologist and chemist. They are volunteers with the Tri-Cities Chapter of Citizens Climate Lobby.

How Does Global Warming Increase Wildfire Risk?

From the National Wildlife Federation

The frequency of large wildfires and the total area burned have been steadily increasing in the Western United States, with global warming being a major contributing factor.

• Longer fire seasons will result as spring runoff occurs earlier, summer heat builds up more quickly, and warm conditions extend further into fall. Western forests typically become combustible within a month of when snowmelt finishes. Snowpack is now melting 1 to 4 weeks earlier than it did 50 years ago.
  
• Drier conditions will increase the probability of fire occurrence. Summertime temperatures in western North America are projected to be 3.6 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit higher by mid-century, enhancing evaporation rates, while precipitation is expected to decrease by up to 15 percent. The Southwest will be hit particularly hard, perhaps shifting to a more arid climate.
  
• More fuel for forest fires will become available because warmer and drier conditions are conducive to widespread beetle and other insect infestations, resulting in broad ranges of dead and highly combustible trees. Higher temperatures enhance winter survival of mountain pine beetles and allow for a more rapid lifecycle. At the same time, moderate drought conditions for a year or longer can weaken trees, allowing bark beetles to overcome the trees’ defense mechanisms more easily.
  
• Increased frequency of lightning is expected as thunderstorms become more severe. In the western United States a 1.8 degree Fahrenheit increase in temperature is expected to lead to a 6 percent increase in lightning. This means that lightning in the region could increase by 12 to 30 percent by mid-century.
  

The bottom line is that the overall area burned is projected to double by late this century across 11 western states if the average summertime temperature increases 2.9 degrees Fahrenheit, with Montana, Wyoming, New Mexico and Utah being hit particularly hard.

Wildfires One of Global Warming's Effects

Barry Point fire south-west of Lakeview, Oregon, August 9, 2012

Wildfires in Washington and Oregon have destroyed thousands of acres of forest and cast a continuous pall of smoke across the Columbia Basin. I live on a rise to the south and over the last several weeks look out over the smoky valley. Air quality warnings are being issued in Washington and Oregon, and outdoor activities, including college football games, have been curtailed or moved to other areas,

Smoke from Wenatchee Complex fire, September 11, 2012

Global warming is a major contributor to the increased incidence and severity of wildfires. The frequency of large wildfires and the total area burned have been steadily increasing in the Western United States, with global warming being a major contributing factor.*

• Longer fire seasons will result as spring runoff occurs earlier, summer heat builds up more quickly, and warm conditions extend further into fall. Western forests typically become combustible within a month of when snowmelt finishes. Snowpack is now melting 1 to 4 weeks earlier than it did 50 years ago.
• Drier conditions will increase the probability of fire occurrence. Summertime temperatures in western North America are projected to be 3.6 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit higher by mid-century, enhancing evaporation rates, while precipitation is expected to decrease by up to 15 percent. The Southwest will be hit particularly hard, perhaps shifting to a more arid climate.
• More fuel for forest fires will become available because warmer and drier conditions are conducive to widespread beetle and other insect infestations, resulting in broad ranges of dead and highly combustible trees. Higher temperatures enhance winter survival of mountain pine beetles and allow for a more rapid lifecycle. At the same time, moderate drought conditions for a year or longer can weaken trees, allowing bark beetles to overcome the trees’ defense mechanisms more easily.
• Increased frequency of lightning is expected as thunderstorms become more severe. In the western United States a 1.8 degree Fahrenheit increase in temperature is expected to lead to a 6 percent increase in lightning. This means that lightning in the region could increase by 12 to 30 percent by mid-century.

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*Following material is taken from Global Warming and Wildfires on the National Wildlife Federation blog.