Tuesday, April 23, 2024

EARTH DAY: Our Goldilocks Planet

My Nono and Nona emigrated from small villages in the province of Trapani in southwestern Sicily in 1898. My wife and I visited the region between Christmas and New Year, 1990-1991. We stayed in a little coastal village called Marinella di Selinunte, overlooking the Sea of Sicily, part of the Mediterranean Sea. I'm glad we went when we did, because the sea is advancing inexorably on Marinella.

We stayed in the Hotel Marimare in Marinella

Just down the road from our hotel were the ruins of Selinunte, a major city-state founded by the Greeks around 650 BC. We walked to the site and made our way along a broad expanse leading to the gigantic ruins of the Acropolis of Selinunte. All along the way we were surrounded by huge columns lying scattered about like a child’s building blocks.

Selinunte was a rich and extensive ancient Greek city of Magna Graecia on the south-western coast of Sicily

In its time, Selinunte had rivaled Athens in its splendor, but like Sicily generally, was subject to the predations of Phoenicians, Greeks, Romans, Byzantines, Arabs, Normans, French, Germans, and Spanish, among others. Today Selinunte is subject to the predations of tourists. Tomorrow, the rising seas, storm surges, and the occasional 'marrobbio' — a major tsunami-like event — will do to Selinunte what time alone could not accomplish — wipe it from history.

We had a wonderful time in Sicily. The weather was sunny, despite it being winter, the scenery was beautiful, the people were friendly, and the food was great; mostly seafood, for which Sicily is rightfully famous.

I particularly remember Rino, our young waiter. He spoke excellent English. His father was born in Sicily, immigrated to the US, and after thirty years decided to return to his homeland, hauling the 13 year-old Rino along. Rino was a tremendous help, since at the that time, relatively few Sicilians spoke English.

Ireland and Italy split apart from the supercontinent of Pangaea about 250 million years ago. My wife and I, fortunately, are still together. My wife is of Irish descent. Her clan, the O'Brien, populates the southwestern part of Ireland in the province of Munster. We visited Ireland in the Summer of 1991.

The province populated by the O'Briens is about 2290 mi from that populated by the Badalamentes, in Sicily. Our first stop in Ireland was Navan. On the way there we stopped at a little cafe to have lunch.  We were seated next to an elderly lady having tea.  She smiled at us, and I struck up a conversation with her, telling her that my wife was of Irish ancestry and had come to Ireland seeking her "roots."  She asked her surname, and I told her it was O'Brien. She said, "Ye should visit the graveyards, you'll find plenty there."

Ireland and Sicily share more than an ancestral interest for me. Both are islands, vulnerable to climate change on many fronts, but especially rising sea levels, storm surges, and ocean acidification.

The Sicilian coast, less than 20% of Ireland's, is great for swimmers, with its smooth sand beaches and hidden coves. The Irish coast is great for geologists, with its sheer cliffs and rocky outcroppings. Unfortunately, both coasts make the countries more vulnerable to climate change, just as Florida in the U.S. is more vulnerable to climate change than, say Missouri.

Cliffs of Moher, Ireland

Ireland's 2023 Climate Change Assessment states that, "Storm surges and extreme waves pose an ever-increasing threat to Ireland as sea levels continue to rise, including for many coastal cities such as Cork, Dublin, Galway and Limerick." The Assessment points out the seeming contradiction that heatwaves and flooding due to heavy precipitation may occur together with storm surges, to create challenging adaptation requirements.

A huge concern for the Irish, just as it is for the Sicilians, is migration of fish species due to warming seas. NOAA reports that the temperature of the water in some Irish seas was as much as four and five degrees Celsius higher in 2022 than between 1991 to 2020. Warm water southern fish, like those in the sea off Sicily's southern coast, are becoming increasingly abundant in northern waters, while northern fish more at home in colder water appear to have shifted further north and to deeper water to escape warming.

Cliff Collapse, Cliffs of Moher

Climate change poses significant challenges to both Ireland and Sicily, impacting coastal communities, economies, ecosystems, and cultural heritage. Adaptation strategies, such as coastal defense measures, sustainable land use planning, and efforts to mitigate climate change, will be crucial for both regions to cope with these challenges effectively.

Climate change is global. Its effects are felt everywhere from our home here in Washington to our ancestral homes, wherever they may be. When we show concern for the Earth, as we do most visibly every year on April 22nd, "Earth Day," we express our concern for everyone, the friendly people that greeted my wife and I when we visited Sicily, and Ireland, our friends and neighbors here, and indeed for all living things. As Rachel Carson wrote, "In nature, nothing exists alone."

Amon Basin, Richland, Washington

In 'Our Fragile Moment,' Michael Mann writes, "We live on a Goldilocks planet. It has water, an oxygen-rich atmosphere, and an ozone layer that protects life from damaging ultraviolet rays. It is neither too cold nor too hot."

 That's our Earth. Celebrate it. Protect and sustain it. Advocate for it. You are the most important factor in ensuring future generations can survive and thrive on our Goldilocks planet.

Saturday, April 6, 2024

Hindsight is 20/20

Down goes Saddam
 

October 10, 2006

Andy ____________, COL, USMC (Ret.)
One postage stamp away, USA

 

Dear Andy;                             

Objecting to my criticism (constant, I’m afraid) of George W. Bush’s so-called “war on terrorism,” you asked me what I would have done had I the responsibility post-9/11 “to protect the homeland?” The problem with the question is that I have the advantage of hindsight and would be tempted to say something like, “I sure wouldn’t have done what that idiot did!” You wouldn’t give that response much credence, would you? No, of course not.

In fact, it would be difficult for me to layout a strategy and plan for responding to 9/11 without either calling upon what I know now, or at any rate, being accused of doing so… “Easy to be a Monday morning quarterback.” In order to avoid this pitfall, I would need to move back in time a good quarter of a century to the Yom Kippur War and the ensuing oil crisis brought about by OPEC’s refusal to ship oil to countries that supported Israel in that war and trace my reasoning through our debacle in Iran in 1979 up to September 12, 2001. I would need to do that just to prove that my response to your question was based on something other than the catastrophe that Bush’s bungling has brought about.

That’s too much work. I’d rather play golf. So just let me summarize what I would have done.

I would start three thrusts simultaneously:

Set the US national security community the task of hunting down and capturing/killing the perpetrators of the 9/11 attack. Once the FBI had determined that responsibility for the attack lay with al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden, I would order the DCI to track the movements of al-Qaeda leaders and order the SECDEF (and it wouldn’t be Donald mister supercilious Rumsfeld, whom I had the misfortune to run into at DIA HQ – he is in person just as much an a**hole as he seems on TV) to formulate a plan for capturing/killing them.

When it had been determined that bin Laden was in Afghanistan, I’d go after him with everything we had and, if necessary, I would pursue him into Pakistan (I would inform Musharif that we intended to do this, but wouldn’t threaten to bomb his country into the “stone age”). I would ensure that our forces pursued bin Laden and his henchmen (I would not give over the capture of bin Laden at Tora Bora to corrupt local militias!). I would ensure that I understood and approved the rules of engagement embedded in the SECDEF’s op plan and those ROEs would not condone torture.

At the same time, I would order my Secretary of State to begin assembling the best minds available throughout the U.S. and internationally and give them the job of formulating a GLOBAL STRATEGY for addressing the escalating threat from international terrorism, with a focus on Islamic extremists across the globe (including Indonesia and other regions of the world besides the Middle East). I would coordinate and cooperate with the international community and use international fora to promote a global response to terrorism. Throughout, I would make this an international problem (which, of course, it is).

Middle East policy would be a facet of this examination, including the US relationships with Israel and Saudi Arabia, among others. My intent would be to develop a comprehensive strategy that encompassed social programs, not just a military response (Patty Murray was right to suggest that Hezbollah might be doing something right in their approach to winning the hearts and minds of the Arab constituency, despite the Republican attack ads jumping all over her for doing so – IO is a key element of any comprehensive strategy).

I would promulgate the Badalamente doctrine stating that countries that sponsor terrorists who attack US interests at home or abroad will be treated as enemies of the US and will be subject to direct military reprisals – “You can’t get away with using surrogates to do your dirty work!”

I would have my cabinet assemble a team under the direction of my counterterrorism chief and in cooperation with the Director of the Department of Justice develop an updated threat matrix and examine US security vulnerabilities and develop a plan to address them, with a focus on “low hanging fruit” (fix the cockpit doors, inspect the cargo, for Christ sake!). My team would be instructed to examine any changes needed in policy/law to permit better tracking of terrorist threats and coordination between intelligence and law enforcement agencies. If I felt it necessary to infringe on civil liberties, I would explain myself to the American public and ensure my policies were constitutional and not just expedient.

Running the government would need to continue during all this and:

I would continue containment of Saddam and I would promote WMD inspections in Iraq during this time, and I would begin examining new options for dealing with the DPRK’s and Iran’s escalating nuclear weapons programs. I would work for sanctions on countries that failed to cooperate on non-proliferation.
I’d make sure that FEMA was robust and led by someone with relevant experience (not a horse show promoter – give me a break!)

 I would insist on a farsighted and far-reaching reexamination and reformulation of our energy policy, with the aim of reducing dependence on foreign oil. I’d insist on raising the CAFÉ standards and removing the loophole for SUVs – the Escalade is not a commercial truck! I would do this in the open, not behind closed doors with oil company executives.

I would fix Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid (means testing would be part of my strategy), and I would address the escalating cost of health care by using the leverage inherent in government purchasing of health care to pressure providers, such as pharmaceutical companies, to lower prices.

I would create a bipartisan congressional committee to address immigration reform, and campaign finance reform (I would have Jack Abramoff arrested and sent to a secret prison in Romania – Oh, I wouldn’t have any secret overseas prisons, so it would have to be Iowa).

I would NOT cut taxes (how dumb would that be?). I’d raise taxes and tell the people that if they didn’t like it, elect a Republican next time!

I would NOT immediately reorganize the intelligence community or domestic security agencies, but rather identify fixes to the communications barriers that prevented them from being as effective as they should have been. The information to do this would come from my vulnerability assessment.

Not everything I did as president would turn out as anticipated/intended, but I would take responsibility for my actions and freely admit my mistakes. I would listen to voices of reason, not attack them because their views might differ from mine. I would serve as an example to my party in the way I conducted myself on policy matters with the opposing party, promoting compromise rather than partisanship. My focus would be on doing my job to the best of my ability – not getting elected for a second term.

I would wear blue dress shirts and paisley ties.

Respectfully yours,

and etc.

A Primer on Fossil Fuels and Their Impact on Earth's Oceans

OCEANS AND FOSSIL FUELS From the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History: Ocean [https://ocean.si.edu/conservation/gulf-oil-spill/wha...