In the long history of evolution it has not been necessary for man to understand multi-loop nonlinear feedback systems until very recent historical times. Evolutionary processes have not given us the mental skill needed to properly interpret the dynamic behavior of the systems of which we have now become a part. J. W. Forrester, 1971
Sunday, April 19, 2020
No, COVID-19 isn't like the Flu
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| Anti-Quarantine Protest in Olympia, Washington |
From my friend Everett Daniel Maroon, who writes this for anyone who needs to hear it:
- People dying from the flu over a 7-month period vs. the same number of people dying from COVID-19 over a 6-week period is an important difference.
- People dying from cancer in hospice or at home vs. people dying in an ICU bed is a big difference in terms of hospital resources.
- People dying from accidents, gun shot trauma, homicides vs. people dying from a communicable disease is a huge difference in risk to the community.
- People dying from a communicable disease that we HAVE treatments and cures for vs. people dying from a communicable disease that has no vaccine or curative treatment is a catastrophic difference.
- People dying from a disease we know about (smallpox, rabies) vs. people dying from a disease we don't yet fully understand is WHY WE TELL PEOPLE TO STAY AT HOME.
- Acting like these differences don't matter is exactly why governmental leaders around the globe have ordered us to stay home.
- This is not a Jay Inslee issue. It is not ultimately a Donald Trump issue. Please stop acting like there is nothing different about this novel coronavirus.
Wednesday, April 15, 2020
First Do No Harm!
PURPOSE
The purpose of this post is to describe the similarities and differences between the symptoms and diagnostics that might be used to distinguish between COVID-19 and pericarditis. I'm interested in this because, as I've described in some detail in a prior post, I've experienced acute pericarditis and still suffer from its effects.
In addition, fatalities associated with COVID-19 are overwhelmingly associated with the elderly and people with existing chronic or temporary medical conditions, such as heart disease, lung disease, asthma, the flu, or other preexisting conditions. Of course, COVID-19 will also target people who may have compromised immune systems, including those compromised by medications they may be taking to treat a preexisting condition, such as patients suffering an acute attack of pericarditis being treated with prednisone, a corticosteroids which, like others, suppresses the immune system.
COVID-19
In 2019, a new coronavirus was identified as the cause of a disease outbreak that originated in China.
The virus is now known as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease it causes is called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
The signs and symptoms of COVID-19 compiled by WebMD based on information gathered from researchers in China, included:
Other symptoms may include:
PERICARDITIS
The Mayo Clinic describes pericarditis is swelling and irritation of the pericardium, the thin sac-like membrane surrounding the heart. Pericarditis often causes chest pain and sometimes other symptoms. The sharp chest pain associated with pericarditis occurs when the irritated layers of the pericardium rub against each other.
Depending on the type pf pericarditis, its signs and symptoms may include some or all of the following:
COVID-19 or PERICARDITIS?
I am day 11 into COVID-19. I'm in the emergency room with severe chest pain and breathing problems. ER nurse said my heart and lungs may be inflamed. My ECG is "abnormal." My pulse is strong. I can’t get to my regular doctor because of the lock-down here. In the last 2 days since my visit to ER I have felt dizzy and nauseous. I have pain in middle of my chest and a panicky fluttery feeling. Now I have a really sore throat. Is this now pericarditis?
Answering the question of this patient on the basis of this information isn't straight-forward. As the symptoms described in the previous sections show, COVID-19 and acute pericarditis symptoms mirror each other closely. This is further illustrated in Table 1, below.
Research indicates that the most common cause of idiopathic pericarditis "in developed countries" is a virus of unknown specificity, thus the diagnosis "non-specific idiopathic pericarditis." Deriving from the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, COVID-19 may well trigger pericarditis, or in a patient with the pre-existing condition, a pericarditis flare up. On the other hand, patients with pre-existing cardiac conditions, like pericarditis, may be more susceptible to COVID-19 because of a disease-induced depressed immune systems, or because a treatment protocol for their pericarditis depresses their immune system, e.g., prednisone (see Figure 1).
One of the key ways humans encode and then retrieve information is by labeling and compartmentalizing it, e.g., this disease manifesting these symptoms is COVID-19. This disease manifesting these symptoms is the flu. This disease manifesting these symptoms is pericarditis.
The lay person gets the sniffles concludes they have a cold, the sniffles evolves to a cough, fever, and achy body and they lament having contracted the flu. But in the midst of a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, they might fear they've come down with COVID-19.
In diagnosing any given patient with the objective of learning and then treating the source of their misery it's imperative that physicians understand (and most do) that the patient is a living history of all that ails them. A patient that presents with flu-like symptoms, is experiencing shortness of breath, and has sharp chest pain, must give a full health history, be examined, and be given a complete laboratory workup to sort out the source of their misery, realizing that it may be generated by a combination of linked factors, i.e., COVID-19 and pericarditis. The course of treatment depends on doing this. Otherwise it might do more harm than good.
The purpose of this post is to describe the similarities and differences between the symptoms and diagnostics that might be used to distinguish between COVID-19 and pericarditis. I'm interested in this because, as I've described in some detail in a prior post, I've experienced acute pericarditis and still suffer from its effects.
In addition, fatalities associated with COVID-19 are overwhelmingly associated with the elderly and people with existing chronic or temporary medical conditions, such as heart disease, lung disease, asthma, the flu, or other preexisting conditions. Of course, COVID-19 will also target people who may have compromised immune systems, including those compromised by medications they may be taking to treat a preexisting condition, such as patients suffering an acute attack of pericarditis being treated with prednisone, a corticosteroids which, like others, suppresses the immune system.
COVID-19
In 2019, a new coronavirus was identified as the cause of a disease outbreak that originated in China.
The virus is now known as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease it causes is called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
The signs and symptoms of COVID-19 compiled by WebMD based on information gathered from researchers in China, included:
- Fever 83%-99%
- Cough 59%-82%
- Fatigue 44%-70%
- Lack of appetite 40%-84%
- Shortness of breath 31%-40%
- Mucus/phlegm 28%-33%
- Body aches 11%-35%
Other symptoms may include:
- Sore throat
- Headache
- Chills
- Stuffy nose
- Nausea or vomiting
- Diarrhea
PERICARDITIS
The Mayo Clinic describes pericarditis is swelling and irritation of the pericardium, the thin sac-like membrane surrounding the heart. Pericarditis often causes chest pain and sometimes other symptoms. The sharp chest pain associated with pericarditis occurs when the irritated layers of the pericardium rub against each other.
Depending on the type pf pericarditis, its signs and symptoms may include some or all of the following:
- Sharp, piercing chest pain over the center or left side of the chest, which is generally more intense when breathing in
- Shortness of breath, especially when reclining
- Heart palpitations
- Low-grade fever
- An overall sense of weakness, fatigue or feeling unwell
- Cough
- Abdominal or leg/feet swelling
COVID-19 or PERICARDITIS?
I am day 11 into COVID-19. I'm in the emergency room with severe chest pain and breathing problems. ER nurse said my heart and lungs may be inflamed. My ECG is "abnormal." My pulse is strong. I can’t get to my regular doctor because of the lock-down here. In the last 2 days since my visit to ER I have felt dizzy and nauseous. I have pain in middle of my chest and a panicky fluttery feeling. Now I have a really sore throat. Is this now pericarditis?
Answering the question of this patient on the basis of this information isn't straight-forward. As the symptoms described in the previous sections show, COVID-19 and acute pericarditis symptoms mirror each other closely. This is further illustrated in Table 1, below.
Research indicates that the most common cause of idiopathic pericarditis "in developed countries" is a virus of unknown specificity, thus the diagnosis "non-specific idiopathic pericarditis." Deriving from the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, COVID-19 may well trigger pericarditis, or in a patient with the pre-existing condition, a pericarditis flare up. On the other hand, patients with pre-existing cardiac conditions, like pericarditis, may be more susceptible to COVID-19 because of a disease-induced depressed immune systems, or because a treatment protocol for their pericarditis depresses their immune system, e.g., prednisone (see Figure 1).
![]() |
| Fig. 1. Complementary relationship between COVID-19 and Pericarditis |
One of the key ways humans encode and then retrieve information is by labeling and compartmentalizing it, e.g., this disease manifesting these symptoms is COVID-19. This disease manifesting these symptoms is the flu. This disease manifesting these symptoms is pericarditis.
The lay person gets the sniffles concludes they have a cold, the sniffles evolves to a cough, fever, and achy body and they lament having contracted the flu. But in the midst of a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, they might fear they've come down with COVID-19.
In diagnosing any given patient with the objective of learning and then treating the source of their misery it's imperative that physicians understand (and most do) that the patient is a living history of all that ails them. A patient that presents with flu-like symptoms, is experiencing shortness of breath, and has sharp chest pain, must give a full health history, be examined, and be given a complete laboratory workup to sort out the source of their misery, realizing that it may be generated by a combination of linked factors, i.e., COVID-19 and pericarditis. The course of treatment depends on doing this. Otherwise it might do more harm than good.
Sunday, March 8, 2020
You don’t have to be a socialist to want to improve America
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| Not Tom Hanks and Meg Ryan Sleepless in Seattle |
Frank is taking Bernie Sanders to task for advocating accessible and affordable health care for all Americans (Medicare4A), and vastly improved education, including tuition-free undergraduate degrees at public colleges and universities. Not one for nuanced argument, Frank paints all the Democratic candidates (even Mike Bloomberg, for cryin’ out loud) with the same broad brush — dipped in red to reflect their socialist (and by extension,“communist”) leanings.
I responded to an earlier lament that Frank wrote about the evils of socialism (CFP, 10/17/19) by pointing out that Frank, as a member of the military, spent much of his working life living under a model socialist system, and now in his retirement enjoys continuing socialist programs (Medicare, Tri-Care for Life, military pension, and other VA benefits, including burial). Nevertheless, Frank believes he isn’t a socialist, and that’s because Frank doesn’t want other Americans to enjoy the same benefits.
The bottom line on Frank’s arguments extolling the virtues of America’s hospitals and universities is that he’s right — they are excellent. They just aren’t affordable for the vast majority of Americans. You don’t have to be a socialist to want to change that.
“When we stop and look into the face of poverty,
we recognize that “the poor” are not strangers.
They are our sisters and brothers, members of our human family.”
A Pastoral Letter from the Catholic Bishops of the State of Washington
Sunday, February 9, 2020
Newt Gingrich Tears Into Nancy Pelosi for Tearing Donald Trump's 2020 SOTU Speech
By way of full disclosure, Newt Gingrich is not one of my favorite people. Nevertheless, out of respect for those of you who may be members of his "Inner Circle," I read his essay on Nancy Pelosi and the "petty, nasty Democrats." First, as a “thought piece” on the coming 2020 Election, it lacks any original, let alone objective insight. Here’s a much more insightful analysis of what’s happening in American political discourse by McKay Coppins in the Atlantic.
Trump has broken every rule in the book when it comes to how one behaves in the highest office in the land. Two days ago in a publicly televised rambling diatribe in the East Room of the White House he used profanity to yet again denounce the Russia probe, and to claim that he did nothing wrong in his call with Ukraine President Zelensky.
At the National Prayer Breakfast last Thursday, Trump told Arthur C. Brooks, who spoke on the theme of his book, “Love Your Enemies,” that he didn’t agree with him, and proceeded to turn the communion into a pejorative-laced rant against his enemies, real and those yet to come. Trump has undermined faith in the Intelligence Community, the FBI, the DOJ, the Media, and now in faith itself.
If you watched the SOTU speech, which I did, you saw Speaker Pelosi read through the speech as Trump gave it — easy to do, since Republicans made sure to applaud Trump’s pronouncements as often as possible without looking totally absurd. Pelosi was clearly angered by the blatant lies and exaggerations layered throughout the speech, but she kept her cool and waited until Trump had accepted his accolades from his assembled sycophants before she gave the speech its due, and tore it to shreds. Here’s what David Frum of the Atlantic (2/5/2020) said of the speech:
“The president crammed his speech with blatant and aggressive lies. The Trump administration is not committed to protecting patients with pre-existing conditions; it has repeatedly sought to end this protection and is in court right now trying again. The U.S.’s position as the world leader in oil and gas production is not thanks to any action of Trump’s; the country moved into first place in 2012. Trump has not presided over any kind of “comeback” of the economy, which grew faster in the three years before he took office than in the three years since. Manufacturing employment has not recovered under Trump; because of his trade wars, manufacturing employment has crashed on his watch. Trump’s untruthfulness is notorious, but it’s still a departure to lie and mislead so often and so brazenly before all the assembled Congress.”
For myself, I find it Orwellian that Gingrich and other Republican blowhards pretend outrage over Pelosi tearing up Trump’s SOTU speech while at the same time pretending that it’s okay to withhold military aid appropriated by Congress in order to coerce Ukraine to announce an investigation into a political rival.
I have to wonder if Gingrich or these other Republican snowflakes will feel the same outrage as Trump exacts his vengeance against those who obeyed Congressional subpoenas and testified during the House impeachment hearings, such as LTC Alexander Vindman, along with his brother LTC Yevgeny Vindman, both of whom were escorted from the White House, and U.S. Ambassador to the E.U. Gordon Sondland. Fiona Hill, who spoke at the hearings in defense of Vindman, is gone, Jennifer Williams, a Pence advisor, is gone, of course Marie Yovanovitch is gone, and William B. Taylor Jr., who served in the Vietnam War and earned a Bronze Star and an Air Medal with a V device for valor, is gone.
So, in my view, the damage that Nancy Pelosi may have done to the solemn honor and privilege of the Chamber and the Chief Executive is nothing compared to the damage Donald John Trump and his minions, including Newt Gingrich, are doing to truth and decency, to the Constitution, and to the country.
Sunday, January 5, 2020
The Assassination of Qassim Suleimani
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| Demonstration in Tehran Over U.S. Assassination of Qassim Suleimani |
President Donald Trump, speaking from his Mar-a-Lago resort, said,”Suleimani was plotting imminent and sinister attacks…” He did not provide any details or evidence of such. Given the President’s propensity for lying, the credence of Trump’s rationale can certainly be questioned.
Suleimani was definitely an enemy of America, but George W Bush and Barack Obama both had opportunities to take him out and chose not to because the benefit was largely symbolic and the cost was largely unknowable. Of course, neither Bush nor Obama were facing an impeachment trial in the U.S. Senate.
What the general public is missing in all the “Sturm and Drang” over impeachment is the detrimental impact Trump’s global actions — self-serving, ill-considered, or simply impetuous — have on American interests and on American lives. This is particularly true of this latest precipitous act.
The assassination of a revered Iranian leader undermines Iranian elements seeking regime change. It encourages Iran’s accelerated development of a nuclear arsenal. Because it was carried out on Iraqi soil, it forces Iraqi’s leaders to demand the removal of U.S. forces, opening the divided country to further Iranian and Russian influence. And it effectively neuters our NATO allies. Also, although unlikely to be discussed by authoritative sources, it very likely compromised significant elements of U.S. national technical means, if not HUMINT against Iran.
People have asked whether this action will lead to an American war in Middle East. My answer is, “Where the hell have you been for the last six decades!”*
_____________________________
*The July 1958 Marine landing in Beirut, Lebanon began the modern era of America’s wars in the region.
Friday, October 25, 2019
Guest Commentary on Impeachment in the Cheney Free Press Gets Me Riled Up
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| It was a "perfect call" |
A recent opinion piece by Frank Watson in the Cheney Free Press got my ire up enough to compel me to respond. Watson and I have several things in common: we're both retired Air Force officers, we've both taught, we like to write, and we're both older than dirt. When it comes to our political views, the similarities end there.
Watson is firmly ensconced on the far right of the political spectrum. I lean liberal. Watson's recent offerings in the Cheney Free Press included pieces titled:
- "Socialism is a one-way trip to disaster"
- "Minimum wage creates more disincentives than reward"
- "Once useful to workers, unions have run their course"
- "When all else fails, it's time to impeach the president"
Frank followed up a May 2018 commentary charging that the Mueller Investigation was a waste of money, with an October 2019 piece claiming that the impeachment inquiry of Donald Trump has no Constitutional basis — “there’s no impeachable offense.” Even if there is, he writes that if the House does go so far as to impeach Trump, the Republican-controlled Senate will surely not vote to impeach him. Because the Senate won’t impeach (according to Watson), it’s all a political stunt. I know what you're going to say, 'What about the fifty or sixty times the Republican-controlled House voted to “repeal and replace” the Affordable Care Act, aka, “Obamacare” while Obama was still President? Wasn't that political theater?' Yeah it was, but Republicans are hypocrisy-challenged.
In what Watson must think is his most telling argument against impeachment he writes that if Democrats attempt an impeachment of Trump, Republicans may come back with an impeachment of Dianne Feinstein or even Nancy Pelosi. Never mind the fact that members of Congress are not impeachable. This childish “goes around comes around warning” is a pathetic argument against Congress fulfilling its constitutional and legitimate oversight obligation.
Let’s be clear, the fact that Donald Trump is a compulsive liar is not sufficient grounds on which to impeach him. The fact that he abused his office as President to extort a foreign power — the Ukraine — to manufacture dirt on a political opponent most certainly is.
As John McCallum, the Managing Editor of the Cheney Free Press writes in his article in the same edition of the paper, “Impeachment is not a criminal proceeding, but rather one dealing with violation of the public trust. We trust our leaders to … not abuse the power of their office to benefit themselves.”
Furthermore, the Trump Administration’s strategy of obstructing Congress’s constitutional oversight responsibility, on top of President Trump’s clear obstruction of the Mueller Investigation, is a violation of 2 U.S. Code § 192, “Refusal of witness to testify or produce papers.” It also flies in the face of the Constitution, and goes against established precedent. Not that Trump has ever concerned himself with either.
A 1982 executive branch memorandum, which remains in force, explicitly states that it is executive branch policy “to comply with congressional requests for information to the fullest extent consistent with the constitutional and statutory obligations of the Executive Branch.” This memorandum is known as the Reagan Memorandum.
The Trump Administration's efforts to obstruct Congressional oversight has been termed "unprecedented," by a former House General Counsel. Trump has made his feelings about the House's impeachment inquiry very plain, calling it a "kangaroo court." He vows to prohibit testimony by government officials and to withhold documents subpoenaed by Congress. This in itself is impeachable.
In its 1974 Judiciary report a House of Representatives Committee identified three types of general impeachable conduct: (1) improperly exceeding or abusing the powers of the office, (2) behavior incompatible with the function and purpose of the office, and (3) misusing the office for an improper purpose or for personal gain. Trump's attempt to extort the newly elected President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, to dig up dirt on Joe Biden, a political opponent, and telling him that U.S. Attorney General William Barr and Rudy Giuliani (Trump's personal attorney) would be contacting him about the matter, qualifies in all three areas.
Another example of misusing the office for an improper purpose or for personal gain is Trump's continuing violation of the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution. He demonstrated his disdain for the Constitution when he directed that his own Doral Golf Resort be used as the site for the 2020 G-7 Summit. A bipartisan backlash ultimately dissuaded him from this, after which he called the Emoluments Clause, "phony."
And then there's what we learned from the Mueller Report.
All told, an embarrassment of riches.
But Watson thinks it's all a political trick designed to help Democrats win the 2020 Election. There's actually a pretty good argument that the impeachment inquiry could hurt Democrats leading up to 2020. Some Democratic Congressional Members in swing states still feel that way. But as it turns out, Democrats have more respect for the rule of law, and the Constitution, than do Republicans. And certainly more than Frank Watson.
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